Key indicators to track
The signals that matter — click any for detail
Indicator 1
RBI Repo Rate
5.25%
Prev: 6.50% · Cut Dec 2025 · Pause expected Apr 8
Accommodative
Indicator 2
CPI Inflation (India)
4.1%
RBI target: 4% · Trending down
In comfort zone
Indicator 3
Nifty 50 P/E Ratio
19.8x
10yr avg: 20x · Correction brought closer to fair value
Moderate caution
Indicator 4
USD/INR Exchange Rate
₹92.9
6M ago: ₹84.2 · Sharp depreciation · Iran war impact
Under pressure
Indicator 5
10-yr G-Sec Yield
6.90%
Prev: 6.65% · Rising — crude shock + fiscal concerns
Yields rising
Indicator 6
Brent Crude (USD)
$105
Spiked to $112 mid-March · US-Iran tensions · Easing slightly
High — easing from peak
Indicator 7
FII Flows (Equity)
−₹9,910Cr
Apr MTD · Record March outflow −₹1.14L Cr
Heavy outflow — record March
Indicator 8
India GDP Growth
6.8%
FY25 estimate · Resilient
Strong
Indicator 9
US Fed Funds Rate
4.25%
Holding · 1 cut expected 2026
On hold
Click any indicator above for explanation and asset class impact
Select an indicator to see what it means and how it affects different asset classes.
Reading the indicators
How macro indicators affect asset classes
Indicator
When rising / hawkish →
When falling / dovish →
Interest rates (RBI Repo)
Bonds fall (prices inverse to rates) · Banks benefit · Rate-sensitive sectors (real estate, NBFCs) under pressure · Rupee tends to strengthen
Bonds rally · Real estate, NBFCs, utilities benefit · Equity broadly positive · Credit spreads tighten
Inflation (CPI)
Erodes fixed income returns · RBI likely to hike · Real assets (gold, real estate) benefit · Consumption slows
Fixed income attractive · Consumption revives · Discretionary equity benefits · RBI has room to cut
Equity valuations (P/E)
Market expensive — lower future returns expected · Deploy new capital in tranches · Don't lump sum
Market cheap — historically good time for lump sum or accelerated SIP · Buying opportunity if fundamentals intact
INR (vs USD)
INR strengthening — negative for exporters (IT, pharma) · Positive for importers · Foreign assets lose INR value
INR weakening — exporters benefit (IT, pharma) · Importers (oil) hurt · Foreign assets gain INR value · Good time to build global allocation
G-Sec Yield (10yr)
Bond prices fall — wait before buying long-duration bonds · Short-duration/floating rate bonds safer
Bond prices rise — good entry for long-duration bonds · Bond funds benefit · Equity discount rate falls (equities re-rate upward)
Crude oil (Brent)
India's import bill rises · CAD widens · INR under pressure · Inflation rises · OMCs (oil companies) margin squeeze · Paints, chemicals, logistics costs rise
Lower input costs for most industries · Consumption spending freed up · CAD improves · INR stable
FII Flows
Foreign money entering India · Rupee support · Market liquidity improves · Sentiment positive
Selling pressure on markets · INR weakens · Watch for DII (domestic) support as offset · Temporary dips often opportunities for long-term investors
US Fed Rate
Dollar strengthens globally · Emerging market outflows including India · EM currencies under pressure · FII selling likely
Dollar weakens · Emerging markets attractive · FII inflows likely · EM currencies strengthen · Risk-on environment
Economic cycle framework
The four phases — where we are and what it means
Expansion
GDP growing · Inflation rising · Corporate earnings strong · Employment high · Credit growing · Markets optimistic
Asset class tendency: Equities outperform. Cyclicals (banks, autos, industrials) lead. Commodities rise. Bonds underperform as rates rise.
Peak
Growth at max · Inflation elevated · RBI hawkish · Credit tight · Valuations stretched · Optimism very high
Asset class tendency: Defensive sectors (FMCG, pharma, IT) outperform. Reduce cyclical exposure. Build cash or short-duration bonds.
Contraction
GDP slowing · Earnings fall · Unemployment rising · Credit tightening · Markets fall · Sentiment negative
Asset class tendency: Bonds outperform (rate cuts coming). Gold holds. Equities fall — but systematic SIPs are accumulating cheap units. Do not stop SIPs.
Recovery
GDP bottoming · Rates being cut · Credit easing · Earnings troughing · Sentiment still poor but improving
Asset class tendency: Best time to deploy equity (most ignore it). Cyclicals begin recovering. Long-duration bonds rally. INR stabilises.
Where India appears to be — April 2026: Early recovery. Rate cuts have begun. Inflation is under control. Earnings are stable. Global uncertainty (Hormuz) is the key external risk. Domestic macro is constructive. This is typically a good phase for systematic equity investment and long-duration bond entry — not a phase to pause SIPs or move entirely to cash.
This is the adviser's assessment based on available data — not a guaranteed characterisation of the economic cycle. Update this section when your macro view changes.
Tracking process
What to read — and what to ignore
Track these — they drive real outcomes
RBI Monetary Policy
rbi.org.in
Repo rate decisions, stance changes, inflation targets. 6 times a year. Most important domestic macro event.
CPI Data (MoSPI)
mospi.gov.in
Monthly. If CPI trends toward 4%, RBI can cut. If it rises toward 6%+, cuts pause. Direct bond and rate impact.
Nifty P/E (NSE)
nseindia.com
Daily. P/E below 18 = historically cheap. 18–22 = fair. Above 25 = expensive. Calibrate lump sum timing.
FII / DII Data (SEBI)
sebi.gov.in
Daily flows. Sustained FII selling + DII buying = domestic market well-supported. FII selling + DII selling = caution.
US Fed (FOMC)
federalreserve.gov
8 times a year. Rate decisions drive dollar strength, EM flows, and INR. Most watched global macro event.
Brent / Dubai Crude
reuters.com/markets
Daily. India imports 85% of crude — oil price is the single biggest external macro variable for India. Track both Brent (paper) and Dubai (physical).
Ignore these — noise, not signal
Daily market predictions from any analyst or bank. They are consistently wrong and exist to fill content quotas.
Short-term technical levels ("Nifty support at 22,400"). Meaningless for investment decisions on 5+ year horizons.
Political event predictions and their market impact. Markets price these in advance and often move opposite to the "obvious" direction.
WhatsApp "hot tips" and social media stock picks. If it's on WhatsApp, the informed money has already moved.
Daily NAV movements of your mutual funds. Looking daily creates anxiety that leads to bad decisions. Review quarterly.
Geopolitical war predictions and exact timelines. Track the price of insurance on risk (oil, volatility index) — not the prediction itself.
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